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THE 2023 ANNUAL REPORT OF THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES OF THE FEDERAL OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE AND FEDERAL DISABILITY INSURANCE TRUST FUNDS


The Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program makes monthly income available to insured workers and their families at retirement, death, or disability. The OASDI program consists of two consists of two has two parts. Retired workers, their families, and survivors of deceased workers receive monthly benefits under the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program. Disabled workers and their families receive monthly benefits under the Disability Insurance (DI) program.


The Social Security Act established the Board of Trustees to oversee the financial operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds. The Board is composed of is composed of consists of six members. Four members serve by virtue of their by virtue of their because of their positions in the Federal Government: the Secretary of the Treasury, who is the Managing Trustee; the Secretary of Labor; the Secretary of Health and Human Services; and the Commissioner of Social Security. The President appoints and the Senate confirms the other two members to serve as public representatives. These two positions are currently currently vacant. The Deputy Commissioner of the Social Security Administration serves as Secretary of the Board.


The Social Security Act requires that the Board, among other duties, report annually annually yearly to Congress on the actuarial status and financial operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds. The 2023 report is the eighty-third such report. The intermediate (best estimate) assumptions for this report were set in December 2022. The Trustees will continue to monitor monitor track future developments and modify modify change projections in later reports as appropriatereports as appropriatereports.


More than 3 years More than 3 years Over 3 years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the acute stage of the pandemic appears to appears to seems to be over, but the Trustees expect there will be residual effects on the population and the economy for years to come. Since the assumptions for last year's report were set, the Trustees have reassessed their expectations for the economy in light of economy in light of economy given recent developments, including updated data on inflation and output, and have revised the levels of gross domestic product (GDP) and labor productivity by about 3 percent over the projection period. Assumptions for growth are largely unchanged after the first 10 years of the projection period. The intermediate (best estimate) assumptions for this report were set in December 2022. The Trustees will continue to monitor monitor track developments and modify modify change projections in later reports.


At the end of 2022, the OASDI program was providing benefit payments to providing benefit payments to giving benefit payments to approximately approximately about 66 million people: 51 million retired workers and dependents of retired workers, 6 million survivors of deceased workers, and 9 million disabled workers and dependents of disabled workers. Over the course of the yearOver the course of the yearDuring the year, an estimated 181 million an estimated 181 million about 181 million people had their earnings covered by Social Security and paid payroll taxes on those earnings. The total cost of the program in 2022 was $1.244 billion. Total income was $1.222 billion, which consisted of consisted of included $1.155 billion in non-interest income and $66 billion in interest earnings. Asset reserves held in special issue U.S. Treasury securities decreased decreased went down from $2,852 billion at the beginning of the year to $2.830 billion at the end of the year.


Under the Trustees' intermediate assumptions, Social Security's total cost is projected to be higher than its total income in 2023 and all subsequent yearsall subsequent yearsall later years. Total cost began to be higher than total income in 2021. Social Security's cost has exceeded its non-interest income since 2010.


To illustrate the actuarial status of the Social Security program as a wholeprogram as a wholeprogram, the operations of the OASI and DI Trust Funds are often shown shown on a combined basis as OASDI. However, by law, the two funds are separate entities and therefore therefore the combined fund operations and reserves are hypothetical. The combined reserves are projected to decrease decrease go down from $2,830 billion at the beginning of 2023 to $590 billion at the end of 2032, the last year of the short-range period.


The reserves of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds along with projected program income are sufficient to cover are sufficient to cover are enough to cover projected program cost over the next 10 years under the intermediate assumptions. However, the ratio of reserves to annual cost is projected to decline from 204 percent at the beginning of 2023 to 96 percent at the beginning of 2029 and remain below 100 percent for the remainder remainder rest of the 10-year short-range period. Because this ratio falls below 100 percent by the end of the tenth projection year, the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds fail the Trustees' test of short-range financial adequacy. Considered separately, the OASI Trust Fund fails this test, but the DI Trust Fund satisfies the test. For last year's report, the combined reserves were projected to be 211 percent of annual cost at the beginning of 2023 and 57 percent at the beginning of 2032.


Long-Range Results (2023-2097)


The DI program continued to have low levels of disability applications and benefits awarded through 2022. Disability applications have decreased substantially have decreased substantially have gone down a lot since 2010, and the total total number of disabled-worker beneficiaries in current payment status has been falling since 2014.


OASDI cost has been generally increasing much more rapidly than non- interest income since 2008 and is projected to continue to do so through about 2040. In this period, the retirement of the baby-boom generation is increasing the number of beneficiaries much faster than the increase in the number of covered workers, as subsequent generations as subsequent generations as later generations with lower birth rates replace the baby-boom generation at working ages. Between about 2040 and 2055, OASDI cost and non-interest income are projected to generally increase increase go up at more rates that are mostly similar to mostly similar to much like the cost rate (the ratio of program cost to taxable payroll) roughly stabilizes, reflecting the return to birth rates above 2 children per woman between 1990 and 2008. Between 2055 and 2078, OASDI cost is projected to increase increase go up significantly faster than income because of the period of historically low birth rates starting with the recession of 2007-09. From 2078 to 2097, cost is projected to grow somewhat slower than income, as birth rates are assumed to return to a level of 2 children per woman for 2056 and thereafter.


If the assumptions, methods, starting values, and the law had all remained unchanged, the actuarial deficit would have increased have increased have gone up to 3.48 percent of taxable payroll, and the unfunded obligation would have increased have increased have gone up to 3.29 percent of taxable payroll and $21.2 trillion in present value due to the change in the valuation date and the extension of the valuation period through an additional year, 2097.


The actuarial deficit increased increased went up significantly in this year's report primarily due to recent economic experience and changes in near-term economic assumptions, as described in section IV.B.6 of this report. In particular, the In particular, the The level of potential GDP is assumed to be about 0.9 percent lower than the level that was that was estimated in last year's report for 2020, widening to approximately approximately about 3.0 percent lower by 2026 and for all years thereafter. This shift was made as the Trustees lowered the levels of GDP and total economy labor productivity in response to recent economic developments, including higher-than-expected inflation rates and lower-than-expected output growth.


To illustrate the magnitude of the the magnitude of the the amount of 75-year actuarial deficit, consider that, for the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds to remain fully fully solvent throughout the 75-year projection period ending in 2097: (1) revenue would have to increase increase go up by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent payroll tax rate increase of 3.44 percentage points1 to 15.84 percent beginning in January 2023; (2) scheduled benefits would have to be reduced by an amount equivalent to an immediate and permanent reduction of 21.3 percent applied to all current and future beneficiaries effective in January 2023, or 25.4 percent if the reductions were applied only to those who become initially initially eligible for benefits in 2023 or later; or (3) some combination of these approaches would have to be adopted.


Under the intermediate assumptions, the projected hypothetical combined OASI and DI Trust Fund asset reserves become depleted and unable to pay scheduled benefits in full on time in 2034. At the time of depletion of these combined reserves, continuing income to the combined trust funds would be sufficient to pay be sufficient to pay be enough to pay 80 percent of scheduled benefits. The OASI Trust Fund reserves are projected to become depleted in 2033, at which time OASI income would be sufficient to pay be sufficient to pay be enough to pay 77 percent of OASI scheduled benefits. DI Trust Fund asset reserves are not projected to become depleted during the 75-year period ending in 2097.


The Trustees recommend that lawmakers address the projected trust fund shortfalls in a timely way in a timely way promptly in order in order to phase in necessary changes gradually and give workers and beneficiaries time to adjust to them. Implementing changes Implementing changes Making changes sooner rather than later would allow more generations to share allow more generations to share let more generations share in the needed increases in revenue or reductions in scheduled benefits. Social Security will play a critical role in the lives of 67 million beneficiaries and 180 million covered workers and their families during 2023. With informed discussion, creative thinking, and timely legislative action, Social Security can continue to protect future generations.

The U.S. Department of Education (Department) has been charged with allocating billions allocating billions assigning billions of dollars to assist assist help States, K-12 schools, school districts, and institutions of higher education in meeting their needs and the needs of their students impacted impacted affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) The Office of Inspector General (OIG) has been charged with ensuring that that these vital vital important funds are used as required and reach the intended recipients, and with investigating misuse, theft, and other criminal activity involving these funds. Three measures were signed into law providing the Department with providing the Department with giving the Department more than $280 billion to assist assist help States, K-12 schools, school districts, and institutions of higher education in meeting their needs and the needs of their students impacted impacted affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Since 2020, the OIG has been conducting audits and reviews of programs, grants, requirements, and flexibilities established under these laws.

During this reporting period, we issued a series of a series of reports on audits that seek to determine whether selected SEAs have adequate oversight processes in place to ensure that (1) LEAs' ARP ESSER plans meet applicable requirements and (2) LEAs use ARP ESSER funds in accordance with in accordance with under applicable requirements and their approved plans. ARP ESSER funds were established to help SEAs and LEAs safely reopen and sustain the safe operation of schools and to address the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on students. Each SEA was required to submit was required to submit had to submit a plan to the Department's Office of Elementary and Secondary Education (OESE) for approval that explained how it would use ARP ESSER funds. SEAs were required to allocate were required to allocate had to allocate not less than 90 percent of the SEA's total ARP ESSER allocation to LEAs. LEAs receiving ARP ESSER funds were to develop and submit to the SEA a plan for their use of ARP ESSER funds, and meet requirements related thereto.

The first audit completed in this series involved the State of Washington. As a part of this audit, we selected two Washington LEAs for review: the Granger School District and Seattle Public Schools. You will find the results of our audit below.


Washington's Oversight of Local Educational Agency ARP ESSER Plans and Spending

Our audit found that the Washington Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (Washington) did not have an adequate review and approval process to ensure that ensure that make sure LEA ARP ESSER plans met all applicable requirements. As a result, the As a result, the The public did not have sufficient have sufficient have enough insight into how the LEAs planned to spend ARP ESSER funds. Washington was required to ensure was required to ensure had to ensure that LEAs submitted ARP ESSER plans that were complete and timely; however, we found that Washington did not ensure LEAs' compliance with all Federal requirements and guidance for creating transparent and understandable plans. During the audit, Washington was responsive to was responsive to responded to the issues we identified and initiated initiated started corrective action to ensure that ensure that make sure Federal requirements and guidance were met. We also determined that Washington's monitoring monitoring tracking of LEAs could be strengthened to provide additional additional more assurance that LEAs used ARP ESSER grant funds for allowable purposes and followed applicable regulations. Washington used its iGrants system to approve LEA ARP ESSER grant budgets and grant applications and to process LEA ARP ESSER claims for reimbursement. However, the claim reimbursement process did not include collecting or reviewing any expenditure-supporting documentation, and we identified one expenditure expenditure spending that did not follow procurement requirements. Further, although Washington used its Consolidated Program Review (CPR) process to review selected LEA expenditures expenditures spending for compliance with Federal education program requirements, its CPR process was not modified modified changed to consider the higher risk associated with ARP ESSER expenditures expenditures spending to ensure selection selection choice of APR ESSER expendituresexpendituresspending. As a result, As a result, Washington may not have sufficient have sufficient have enough assurance that ARP ESSER expenditures were expenditures were spending was allowable.


Based on our findings, we made three recommendations: (1) that Washington take appropriate appropriate corrective actions for LEAs with approved ARP ESSER plans so that that these plans meet all applicable requirements; (2) that Washington be required to document be required to document have to document its review and approval of ARP ESSER plans for LEAs that have not yet submitted their plans, once they have been submitted, to ensure that ensure that make sure they comply with all program comply with all program follow all program requirements; and (3) that Washington develop and implementdevelop and implementcreate, for both the reimbursement and monitoring monitoring tracking processes, protocols to sample LEA expenditures expenditures spending charged to ARP ESSER, and to review supporting documentation, including procurement process documentation, to ensure that ensure that make sure applicable Federal, State, and local requirements are met. Washington officials neither agreed nor disagreed with our findings but agreed with our recommendations.


Local Educational Agencies' Uses of Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief Funds for Technology


The purpose of this report was to identify The purpose of this report was to identify This report identified and describe LEAs' uses of ESSER funds for technology purposes. We surveyed a nationwide sample of LEAs about their experiences with using ESSER funds to purchase to purchase to buy educational technology to continue student instruction during the coronavirus, specifically the (1) types of educational technology that LEAs purchased with their ESSER funds, (2) challenges that LEAs experienced when using ESSER funds for educational technology, and (3) impact the educational technology had on student learning. The survey provided important information. LEAs nationwide generally reported using ESSER funds to purchase to purchase to buy educational technology to continue student instruction during the coronavirus. We estimated that 92 percent of LEAs used ESSER funds to purchase to purchase to buy hardware, software, connectivity, and related products or services to continue instruction during the coronavirus. We noted that 93 percent of LEAs used ESSER funds to purchase to purchase to buy hardware to continue instruction. ESSER funds were also used for connectivity (70 percent), software (66 percent), and other products and services (43 percent), such as training. Except for hardware, we identified notable differences between traditional and charter LEAs' responses for how ESSER funds were used to purchase to purchase to buy educational technology. Traditional LEAs were more likely to use ESSER funds to purchase to purchase to buy connectivity and charter LEAs were more likely to use ESSER funds to purchase to purchase to buy software and other products and services. Further, we noted through our analyses that urban LEAs, high-poverty LEAs, and small LEAs were more likely to use ESSER funds to purchase to purchase to buy educational technology when compared to their counterparts. LEAs reported that they initiated initiated started or expanded programs that provided all students in their schools or districts access to digital devices for schoolwork and purchased purchased bought hotspots that resolved or mitigated the challenges of ensuring that ensuring that making sure all students and teachers had adequate internet access.


LEAs nationwide reported on challenges that that they had to address using educational technology purchased purchased bought using ESSER funds, including resolving or mitigating challenges they faced while continuing student instruction during the coronavirus, and experienced when using ESSER funds to purchase to purchase to buy educational technology. We then asked LEAs how they resolved or mitigated the challenges they experienced. LEAs most frequently frequently often reported experiencing challenges due to (1) shifting the method of instruction to remote, hybrid, or in-person; (2) ensuring students and teachers had adequate internet access; (3) purchasing purchasing buying educational technology; and (4) maintaining or repairing educational technology. We asked LEAs about any ongoing or future challenges that that they anticipated anticipated expected related to using ESSER funds for educational technology. LEAs most frequently frequently often reported the need to sustain ongoing costs when ESSER funds are no longer available as an anticipated anticipated expected future challenge. Our survey revealed that ESSER-funded technology enabled LEAs nationwide to continue instruction remotely during shutdowns due to the coronavirus. We asked LEAs to provide their opinions about the degree (i.e., great, some, or none) to which ESSER-funded technology enabled their schools to provide remote instruction for different student populations. We estimate that 68 percent of LEAs were enabled, to a great degree, by ESSER-funded technology to provide remote instruction for provide remote instruction for remotely instruct the general student population. Further, LEAs most frequently frequently often reported being enabled by ESSER-funded software, to a great degree, then hardware and connectivity to provide remote instruction. We estimate that 46 percent of LEAs were able to address were able to address addressed the academic impact of lost instructional time because ESSER-funded technology, to a great degree, facilitated activities facilitated activities helped with activities during the 2019-2020 school year. This percentage increased increased went up to 50 percent of LEAs during the 2020-2021 school year. The report was informational and did not include any recommendationsdid not include any recommendationsincluded no recommendations.

The American Community Survey (ACS) is the largest continuous household survey in the United States, providing a wealth of information about the economic, social, and demographic characteristics characteristics features of personspersonspeople, as well as housing characteristicscharacteristicsfeatures. One goal of the ACS is to serve as a cost-effective vehicle for collecting information required by law, regulation, or executive order on behalf of Federal agencies or at the direction of Congress. In conducting the ACS, the U.S. Census Bureau leverages its existing infrastructure and data collection expertise expertise knowledge on behalf of the Federal Government. Like the decennial census long form before it, the ACS provides comprehensive and representative statistical information about large and small communities on a variety of important topics-all while protecting respondents' confidentiality. In addition, because the ACS is a continuous survey, the data is published annuallyannuallyyearly, providing more timely information than the once-per-decade long form.


The value of the ACS lies in its ability to provide statistical information representing large and small communities and demographic groups across the Nation that can be used by governments, businesses, and individuals to make better decisions. This ability depends upon depends upon depends on sufficiently large samples from these communities, which in turn in turn depends on the mandatory mandatory required nature of the survey. About 3.5 million households are sampled every year for the American Community Survey, and it takes respondents a total of a total of about 2.4 million hours per year to answer the survey. In exchange, the Nation acquires uniquely comprehensive, representative, topical, and timely data about its communities that serves as an essential component component part of the information infrastructure relied upon relied upon relied on by decision makers through­ out the country.


What would happen to the quality of decision making if the ACS were less comprehensive, representative, topical, or timely? The answer depends upon depends upon depends on the specific use to which the data would be put and require speculation about what, if any, , if any, data would be used instead. Still, Canada's recent experience in moving from a mandatory to a voluntary survey provides some insight into the value of a comprehensive, representative, topical, and timely survey, and what happens when those qualities are compromised. After it became voluntary, the Canadian survey yielded much lower response rates, resulting in information that less comprehensively and reliably covered the small areas of Canada-and at a higher cost. Canadian decision makers were left to use out-of-date data that did not necessarily represent the specific geographic areas in question.



ACS data is uniquely tailored to help guide myriad specific decisions across myriad specific decisions across many specific decisions across the country, making government more intelligent, businesses more competitive, and the public more informed. As a tool for smarter government, ACS data offers evidence to help government operate betteroperate betterrun better. Federal agencies rely on the ACS to help them make operational decisions, including managing and evaluating programs, allocating evaluating programs, allocating evaluating programs , assigning over $400 billion in funds, determining eligibility for pro­ grams, and benchmarking other statistics. For example, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) uses ACS data to estimate the number and geographic distribution of veterans with service-connected disabilities who are eligible but not registered for VA health services.


State and local communities use the wealth of information provided by information provided by information from the ACS for a wide variety of purposesa wide variety of purposesmany purposes, including comprehensive planning, economic development, and research on local issues and conditions. For example, a researcher generated maps of vulnerable populations, such as students, households in poverty, and persons persons people with disabilities in the path of a lava flow on the island of Hawaii, using small-area population and demographic estimates from the ACS. And the Greater Houston Partnership, which works with companies to retain retain keep and create jobs, make investments to expand the tax base, and increase general business activity and local incomes, uses ACS data to answer companies' questions about such things as commuting times and the availability of science and engineering workers.


The ACS provides immense value beyond government. Often, intermediaries combine ACS data with other data, analyze it, tabulate it, use it in models, and display it in charts, maps, and tables to help decision makers make better use of make better use of use it. As a tool for more competitive businesses, ACS data provides reliable information to help businesses make a wide variety of decisionsa wide variety of decisionsmany decisions, from where to locate a store to what to stock on the shelves. Locating a business is a critical decision, with more than $55 billion spent on commercial construction last year. Businesses, such as Kroger, rely on third-party proprietary models that use ACS small area estimates to project sales for potential new grocery stores sites or remodeling of existing stores. Likewise, with retail inventories of over $563 billion last year, businesses need solid evidence about how to stock their shelves. Retailers, such as Target, use the ACS for neighborhood-level demographic data such as population density, owner-occupancy, and house­ hold size to determine the optimal the optimal the best mix of goods with which to stock its stores throughout the country. This report provides other examples of how ACS data has served as an important component component part of the information that businesses use to stay competitive-helping them run efficiently, hire wisely, and serve their customers' needs. And as a tool for a more informed public, ACS data is used by researchers and the media to advance the Nation's understanding of a broad range of issues. This report discusses examples of these uses as well.


No other source of data offers what the ACS can: timely information about important topics, comprehensively covering communities throughout the Nation with the statistical precision to represent them accurately and to compare them. Without the ACS, decision makers throughout the country would be left to make decisions based make decisions based decide based on information that is, relative to the ACS, stale, incomplete, unreliable, or not as relevantnot as relevantnot.



The American Community Survey (ACS) collects information on a large number of economic, social, and demographic characteristics characteristics features of personspersonspeople, as well as housing characteristicscharacteristicsfeatures. The survey is conducted by collecting data from a random sample of housing unit addresses every month, for a total of 3.5 million housing units contacted each year. The large sample size affords comprehensive coverage of the Nation and permits statistically reliable estimation for small and large geographic areas. The ACS program is conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and provides statistics about thousands of communities across the Nation on a wide range of subjects.


To ensure that ensure that make sure all communities are adequately rep­ resented, respondent participation is mandatorymandatoryrequired. The confidentiality of responses is protected by criminal and civil penalties for illegal disclosure. Together these aspects aspects parts of the ACS help to ensure the data's quality and credibility.


A Brief History of the American Community Survey


The history of the ACS is rooted in the decennial census. The first census, conducted in 1790, had six demographic questions that went beyond the bare enumeration of the Nation's population. Over time, and often at the behest of Congress, more questions about social, economic, demographic, and housing characteristics characteristics features were added. The development of statistical sampling theory allowed the Census Bureau to collect this detailed data from only a random sample of the population, and from the 1940 Census through the 2000 Census, most households were asked to pro­ vide responses to a short set of questions (the "short form"), while a random sample was asked a longer set of questions (the "long form"). In the 2000 Census, the long form was delivered to about 17 percent of addresses, or roughly 20 million households.


After the 1990 Census, the Census Bureau began to explore alternatives to the long form, with the goals of simplifying the decennial census, containing costs, and producing timelier information to inform policy decisions and legislative actions. In 2005, after nearly a decade of rigorous testing and experimentation, the Census Bureau fully fully implemented the alternative to the long form, the American Community Survey.


Figure 1 shows the timeline for the addition of for the addition of for adding various topics to the decennial census starting in 1790 through 2000 and to the ACS since it was first fully fully implemented in 2005. While the first several decennial censuses asked a small number of a small number of a few basic demographic questions (about age, race, and sex), as the Nation expanded geographically and as its population and economy grew in both size and complexity, more questions were added.


This report aims to illustrate the value of the information provided the information provided the information given by the ACS by examining how it supports decision making throughout the Nation. The remainder remainder rest of this report is organized as follows. The first section discusses the ACS's role in providing a broad array of a broad array of an array of information to represent comprehensively the Nation's communities. The collection of this information has been driven by the Federal Government's need for information, and the value of the ACS lies in the fact that it provides a broad range of current and topical information about large and small communities. The section includes discussion about the types of types of questions asked, confidentiality protections, limitations of the survey, and how the ACS content can be revised to meet the Nation's changing information needs.


The second section of the report focuses on what the Nation gets in return for its investment in the ACS. It provides examples of how ACS data is used to inform decisions across the government and the economy. Although the information needs of the Federal Government are paramount to the mission of the ACS, the section also discusses the importance of the ACS in informing a wide range of state and local community decisions, and how businesses rely on the ACS to improve their operations. Finally, this section discusses the value of the ACS in research and in informing citizens about their communities.


The value of the ACS is that it provides statistically precise information that is topical, comprehensive, representative, and timely.


The ACS provides topical information, driven by the Federal Government's need for information to operate effectively. The ACS questionnaire2 contains contains has 48 questions about each person in a given given residence and 24 questions about the housing of about the housing of about housing the respondent. The information it collects includes individual characteristics characteristics features such as age, sex, race, ethnicity, ancestry, citizenship, educational attainment, veteran status, disabilities, and language; household structure, including family relationships; employment status, industry of employment, occupation, job location, and commuting time; earnings and other income; health insurance; housing characteristicscharacteristicsfeatures, such as number of rooms and renter/owner-occupied, and expenditures expenditures spending on certain goods and services, such as rent, utilities, and homeowner costs.


The ACS is comprehensive, providing a broad array of a broad array of an array of information covering the entire Nation. The ACS is also representative geographically, providing statistically valid information for states, counties, and other large and small areas, such as cities, townships, and villages, congressional and state legislative districts, American Indian and Alaska Native areas and Hawaiian home lands, zip code tabulation areas, and school districts. The ACS is also representative of is also representative of represents many small distinct populations, for example, reporting 2009-2013 estimates of per capita income by race and Hispanic origin for Crenshaw County, Alabama (2014 estimated population: 13,977). And ACS estimates are timely-more current than information based on the once-per-decade Census long form. Because ACS information is based on samples collected continuously each year, new estimates are released annuallyannuallyyearly.



The Census Bureau annually publishes estimates based on data covering different time time periods for different geographic areas, based on the population size of the areas. Estimates for areas with populations of at least 65,000 are available based on 12 months of collected data {1-year estimates). In contrast, estiIn contrast, estiEsti­ mates for areas with smaller populations are released annually annually yearly but are based on 60 months of collected data. Likewise, estimates are released annually annually yearly for small subpopulations in low-population areas, such as American Indian areas, Alaska Native areas, Hawaiian home lands, and racial or ethnic groups, based on 5 years of accumulated accumulated collected data.4 Although the use of pooled multiyear data for smaller areas and groups introduces some some uncertainty into the estimates, annual releases of data allow users to com­ pare data more frequently frequently often than the decennial census would allow. Also, because the ACS uses a consistent methodology a consistent methodology a consistent method to produce estimates, data users can make direct comparisons for a wide range of groups and communities. Such comparisons would be more difficult if communities or other entities independently collected their own data using different methods, defini­ tions, sources, and standards.


American community survey costs and Burdens


To provide statistically valid information about both small and large areas and groups, a sufficient number of a sufficient number of enough completed questionnaires are required, and this drives the cost of the survey. The cost of the ACS includes both the costs to taxpayers, as reflected in the ACS budget, and the time that individuals spend responding to the survey.


The budget for the ACS was $242 million in 2013, representing an annual cost of about 76 cents per per­ son in the United States. In addition, each respondent spends an estimated average of 40 minutes answering the survey, for a total burden of about 2.4 million hours per year.5 Based on average hourly earnings in the private sector of roughly $24 in 2013,6 the estimated value of respondent time spent on the ACS in 2013 was approximately approximately about $58 million.


Another perceived burden of the ACS is concerns about privacy and confidentiality. Some respondents have concerns about divulging information required by some of the survey questions. Therefore, Therefore, So informa­ tion provided by respondents is kept confidential by law.7 The information on individuals and households is aggregated to create statistics about the Nation's com­ munities, devoid of personally identifiable information. Individual-level data is available for certain additional statistical tabulations, but without any without any with no information that would allow identification of respondents. The Census Bureau cannot share respondents' answers-including with other government agencies. Violators are subject to fines and incarceration; disclosure of information that could identify respondents can result in up to 5 years in prison, or $250,000 in fines, or both.


The ACS is a mandatory mandatory required collection of information for statistical purposes. The mandatory mandatory required nature of the survey ensures that ensures that makes sure the sample sizes for all areas are sufficient are sufficient are enough for reliable statistics. It also helps to achieve this reliability while minimizing minimizing reducing the cost to taxpayers.


To maintain a sufficiently large sample under a voluntary survey scenario, the Census Bureau would need to increase efforts at following up with respondents who choose not to respond initiallyrespond initiallyrespond, and would need to administer additional additional more questionnaires to compensate for the increase in nonrespondents. This would take more time and more taxpayer money.


Prior to Prior to Before the full implementation of the ACS, and at the request of Congress, in 2003 and 2004 the Census Bureau studied the impact of a voluntary, rather than mandatorymandatoryrequired, ACS. The Census Bureau found that a voluntary ACS would decrease the response rate by about 20 percentage points and negatively affect the reliability of the survey estimates. As Table 1 shows, if in 2013 the ACS had been voluntary, and no additional measures were taken, there would be a notable loss in reliability of the survey results (53 percent increase in statistical variance); increasing the initial sample size in order in order to maintain the reliability of the survey in 2013 would have cost an additional $89 million (52 percent more than the actual cost). Simply maintaining the current ACS sample size would have cost an extra $36 million due to additional respondent follow-up and would have also resulted in a less reliable survey.8 Further, additional additional more nonresponse as a result of as a result of because of vol­ untary methods may be unevenly distributed across demographic, social, and economic subgroups, so that the representativeness and completeness of the data from the survey would be at risk. Figure 2 depicts the projected detrimental detrimental harmful effect that voluntary meth­ ods would have on the percentage of census tracts within a county with acceptable quality data, based on the 2006-2010 5-year American Community Survey results.9 In both panels darker-shaded counties have a higher share of census tracts with acceptable qual­ ity data than lighter-shaded counties. The top panel depicts the share of census tracts with various levels of acceptable data quality under a mandatory mandatory required survey. It shows that only about 5 percent of counties have the lowest level of quality (i.e., the share of tracts with acceptable quality data is less than 20 percent) cov­ ering only about 2.5 million people. The top panel also shows that about 42 percent of counties covering 55 million persons persons people have more than 80 more than 80 over 80 percent of tracts with acceptable data quality. In contrast, the In contrast, the The bottom panel shows that under a voluntary survey, 24 percent of counties covering 61 million persons persons people would have less than 20 percent of tracts with acceptable data quality, while 17 percent of counties covering about 9 million persons persons people have 80 percent or more of their tracts with acceptable data quality. Finally, a less reliable ACS would also be detrimental to be detrimental to harm other Census Bureau products, since the ACS is used as used as a benchmark for surveys and other populations and statistical reporting purposes.


In addition to the Census Bureau research, the expe­ rience of Canada shows that response rates decline when shifting from a mandatory to a voluntary survey. In Canada, the response rate to a survey similar to the ACS fell from 94 percent in the last year it was mandatory to 64 percent in the first year it was voluntary, a 25 percentage point drop.10 (See Box 5. ) Given the lower response rates, the mandatory mandatory required nature of the survey is fundamental to its cost-effectiveness as a comprehen­ sive and representative source of data.

Solar NGO is the largest nonprofit solar company in the country. Our mission is to make renewable energy technology and job training accessible to underserved communities. Solar NGO has offices throughout the state of Lincoln and is growing a national Tribal program. Our Solar Energy in Affordable Housing Program now reaches an average of 1,000 low-income families per year, and we have been nationally recognized for our impact. Solar NGO of Lincoln operates statewide operates statewide runs statewide and provides residential, multi-family and community solar installations, as well as installations, as well as installations and job training opportunities with each installation.


Solar NGO is a clear leader in improving low-income access to solar energy. A few examples of our current and past past work done to improve low-income access to solar energy include the largest low-income solar program in the country, partnerships with Federal agencies, State agencies and utilities to ensure low-income communities are not left out of solar conversations and initiatives, advocacy and presentations so that that all solar stakeholders better understand the unique issues of low-income solar access, and local coalitions to pass community solar bills in order in order to increase low-income access to community solar.


Our families are asked to partner and directly participate in our solar projects so that that they have an opportunity for hands-on experience that creates a tangible tangible real link to our mission. This includes a one-hour introductory solar and energy efficiency class, developing a sweat-equity plan, hands-on training installing the solar array that will be providing their energywill be providing their energywill provide their energy, and supporting the project in other ways such as outreach, communication, and other community engagement opportunities.


We are currently currently producing a state demonstration project. A key component component part to our approach with this application is leveraging our utility relationships to implement projects with a wide range of partners.


Solar NGO is uniquely qualified for this demonstration project because we recently developed the first community shared solar project. Solar NGO partnered with Valley Power (VP) to build the first 100% dedicated low-income shared solar array in the country. The success of the VP project has opened the door to a number of a number of several high-level relationships with Rural Electric Associations (REAs) across the state. We have since provided various levels of technical assistance to Lincoln State REAs interested in developing similar low-income shared solar projects. This assistance This assistance This help has included technical analysis for community solar arrays, regulatory analysis, discussion of project costs and financing options, and market estimates of project impact on low-income ratepayers. As attached letters of support demonstrate, demonstrate, show, we have built the relationships and have the credibility to help our utility partners get internal buy-in buy-in support from their boards/city councils and quickly move forward with projects.


In total, we In total, we We have 12 viable viable possible projects to submit for this proposal among IOU, REA, & MU partners. As this proposal details, Solar NGO is well-positioned with our state utilities to successfully successfully implement this project in partnership with the CEO.


Our detailed work plan will demonstrate demonstrate show Solar NGO's ability to meet and meet and exceed all of all of the goals and objectives goals and objectives goals of this community shared solar demonstration project. To demonstrate demonstrate show scalability, Solar NGO is proposing a project portfolio that will include all three state utility types: REA, MU, and IOU.


Nationwide, utilities are our most important partners and key to successfully scaling our low-income solar programs. After working closely with utilities such as Valley Power and working on legislative priorities with trade organizations in Lincoln State, it is clear that it is clear that Solar NGO and our state utilities are prepared when it comes to it comes to increasing low-income access to solar.


Solar NGO currently currently has the partnerships and capability of implementing third-party owned solar projects, but our preferred program design for low-income community shared solar is one where the utilities own the solar assets themselves. The merits of this model are demonstrated are demonstrated are shown by the success of our GVP project. This model allows us to leverage model allows us to leverage model lets us leverage utility investment with our unique nonprofit resources to deliver projects that are both low cost and easily implemented.


In our co-development model, each partner (Solar NGO and the utility partner) leverages their unique resources and expertise expertise knowledge to implement community solar projects that utilities ultimately own. We strongly believe utility We strongly believe utility Utility project ownership is a key component component part of delivering a replicable and scalable program, and we are very very excited about the CEO's foresight in promoting utility ownership for projects implemented under this demonstration project. The benefits of co-developing projects and utility ownership are numerous, but include the availability to leverage utilities' resources, including sites and ability to on-bill credit, as well as to work together to enhance all aspects aspects parts of programs, from outreach to technical planning and interconnection. Solar NGO provides full engineering, procurement, and contracting services to utilities as well as expertise expertise knowledge working with low-income and underserved communities. Utilities provide sites ideal for interconnection, front-of-the-meter infrastructure, and cash investment. Solar NGO's experienced and licensed construction staff develops the array, along with local job trainees and community volunteers in a "barn-raising" model. We also work with utilities to design our programs to maximize impact on the clients while still allowing utilities to recover still allowing utilities to recover still letting utilities recover some of their investment at a reasonable rate - in addition to the associated PR, societal and environmental benefits projects generate for utility partners.


To meet the goals outlined in this request, Solar NGO is proposing a project portfolio that that we believe will surpass the aggregate goal of 1,000 kW of solar power generation within the two-year timeframe at the stated $1.2 million in contribution by the CEO. As demonstrated As demonstrated As shown in the chart below and in the section Leveraged Dollars, Solar NGO is proposing a project portfolio that will meet the 2:1 ratio of leveraged dollars.


We are at various levels of negotiations with ten utility partners and have twelve viable viable possible projects to put forth for this proposal. Essentially, we would be leveraging both dollar investment would be leveraging both dollar investment would leverage both dollar investment and future community solar projects (a key component component part to demonstrating demonstrating showing scalability after the 24-month period).


The first eight projects below are Solar NGO's priorities as we believe this mix will best meet the stated objectives objectives goals of this demonstration project. We are asking for flexibility to negotiate the best possible possible deals for this partnership. The utility partners may change, as well as change, as well as change and the mix of CEO investment to utility investment as we finalize negotiations finalize negotiations finish negotiations on various deals, but we will stay within the intent of this shared solar demonstration project by installing at least 1,000 kW of low-income shared solar within the CEO match of $1.2 million.


We are currently currently providing various levels of technical assistance to ten utility partners and proposing a project with the local mountain tribe. All of these All of these These projects have the potential to meet the stated objectives objectives goals and be completed within the timelines of this demonstration project. Our intent is to Our intent is to We intend to work with the CEO as a partner to prioritize prioritize focus on projects based on strategic importance and to distribute the CEO's investment to best maximize impact.


Leveraged Dollars


Solar NGO is attempting to attempting to trying to secure about $1.30 in direct utility cash investment to support this project for every $1.00 invested by the CEO, and leverage our nonprofit resources, such as in-kind donations and local and regional donor partners, to meet the 2:1 leverage requirement. There are additional additional more leveraged dollars that Solar NGO, our utility partners, and other community partners will bring to this project. Furthermore, the Furthermore, the The local mountain tribe will be donating land and working will be donating land and working will donate land and work in close partnership with Solar NGO of Lincoln State and Solar NGO's National Tribal Program to secure additional additional more Federal and foundation dollars. Solar NGO will also engage a number of different a number of different several community partners to support this project financially. Finally, we are structuring most projects in a way that requires virtual shareholder families to contribute through the virtual share charge to the on-going operations and maintenance (O&M) of the solar arrays providing their electricity. A full description of the methodology the methodology the method used to determine the required match is included in the next section.


In Solar NGO's experience, utilities are open to designing impactful programs for their low-income ratepayers, as long as participants continue to pay their 'fair share' for grid access (fixed charges), which varies greatly between urban and rural utilities due to factors such as distribution line density (number of customers served per mile of line, which is a fixed infrastructure cost they must recover). In light of In light of Given the range of rate structures and unique goals of utility partners, the key to designing a favorable program rate structure and to meeting the objectives objectives goals of this demonstration project is to enter utility negotiations with a specific impact goal in mind. We have found that once the goal is agreed upon, utilities know their rate structures best and will openly work with us to structure the crediting and fixed ratepayer contribution to meet that goal. Solar NGO has established an internal goal to achieve a 50% reduction in a client family's annual energy bill. At a 50% annual utility bill savings threshold, we also believe that we also believe that families participating in this program will see their energy burden fall to a level that is that is more in line with non-low-income rate payers. The participants in our past community solar projects all met our 50% reduction goal with only a few exceptions. In some instances, In some instances, Sometimes, families with low usage and small offset fell below our 50% threshold. Once we have an agreed upon program rate structure, we ensure that ensure that make sure rate is fixed in the contract for the full 20-year period and that participants receive full retail credit for the energy the array is producing. We are open to working with the CEO to determine impact goals for each proposed project that best meet the energy burden reduction objectives objectives goals of this demonstration project.

Policy Issues for R&D Investment in a Knowledge-Based Economy


The ''Internet Revolution'' induced an unbalanced perspective on future economic growth strategies. Because information technology (IT) largely constitutes largely constitutes is largely an infrastructure upon which upon which on which other economic activity is based, its economic role is to facilitate the facilitate the help with the productivity of investment in a wide range of products and services that meet ?nal demand. Other economies around the world can and are investing in the same infrastructure, so the ef?ciency advantages now being realized by the U.S. economy will be ?eeting unless U.S. R&D efforts produce a new and broad range of innovative products and services that take advantage of this infrastructure. A deep and diverse technology-based manufacturing sector must be a core objective of a national R&D strategy. United States' manufacturing contributes $1.5 trillion to GDP, employs 20 million workers, accounts for more than 70% more than 70% over 70% of industrial R&D, and constitutes constitutes is the main source of technology for the larger service sector. While knowledge-based services are the largest source of economic growth for the U.S. economy, their long-term performance is highly dependent on is highly dependent on highly depends on synergies with a domestic manufacturing sector. These synergies will be even more important in the future in the future because services are increasingly exposed to foreign competition. Knowledge-based services can be supplied from anywhere in the world-as long as these foreign sources can rapidly access and assimilate the necessary necessary technology componentscomponentsparts. This caveat caveat exception is the critical point for economic growth policy. Considerable research supports the argument that hardware and software components components parts are most ef?ciently supplied to services by a manufacturing sector that is geographically close and institutionally integrated with the service applications. Policy debates have raged for decades over the nature and magnitude of the nature and magnitude of underinvestment in manufacturing R&D. The need to resolve the relevant policy issues has increasedhas increasedhas gone up, as industry is funding less of the long-term, high-risk research that creates the technology platforms supporting new industries and future economic growth. Unfortunately, only about a third of U.S. manufacturing is high-tech by conventional de?nitions. Some of the remaining industries develop technologies internally, but most purchase purchase buy a large proportion of their technology from the high-tech sector. Because a technology acquisition strategy can be more easily imitated by foreign competitors, traditional industries are much more susceptible to exchange rate variations, global economic cycles, and secular shifts in foreign competition. Thus, with global technological capabilities relentlessly increasingincreasinggoing up, the long-term prospects for the moderate and low R&D-intensive portions portions parts of U.S. manufacturing are not good. This paper presents a conceptual framework and available available data as inputs for the analysis of Federal R&D investment strategies. Such strategies must recognize the full range of public and private technology assets constituting a national innovation system. A developed and ef?cient innovation system has characteristics characteristics features making imitation by making imitation by imitating by foreign competitors dif?cult and thereby thereby enables sustained competitive advantage.


Especially important is the fact that the service sector acquires is the fact that the service sector acquires is the service sector acquiring most of its technology from manufacturing ?rms, as indicated in Figure as indicated in Figure as described in Figure 1 by the much higher share of R&D performed by the manufacturing sector. This fact fact emphasizes the substantial dependency of services on manufacturing ?rms for technology and thus thus the critical role of the myriad communications and market transactions between the two sectors.


Recent studies show that the ef?ciency of such interactions still declines with geographical distance, in spite of in spite of despite the globalization of markets. This phenomenon proffers an proffers an offers an advantage for large, diversi?ed economies because they have greater potential for achieving synergies from vertical and horizontal integration (real or virtual) among technologies and industries. Moreover, the Moreover, the The argument that services are a better long-term economic growth strategy because they are immune to import competition is also suspect. Services are being provided by foreign sources more frequently, and most recently by developing nations. Perhaps most important, the so-called so-called New Economy is largely an infrastructure-driven economic transformation. The underlying infrastructure technologies facilitate new facilitate new help with new economic growth trajectories based on innovations in product, process, and service technologies. However, these three categories of innovation do not automatically happen just because new infrastructure appears. The Internet is greatly increasing the ef?ciency of intra-company operations, alliances, and marketplace transactions, but the virtual marketplace does not guarantee a ?ow of new domestically produced products and services. Economic growth policy therefore therefore needs to be equally concerned with investment in new pro- ducts and production processes, which can bene?t from the IT revolution. After the initial assimilation of IT to increase operation and transaction ef?ciency, economic gains will be realized more slowly and will be distributed on a global basis. Economic growth policy must therefore Economic growth policy must therefore That means economic growth policy must reemphasize technological innovation in hardware and software as major building blocks of future economic growth. This paper presents a conceptual framework for identifying policy issues affecting economic growth in a technology-based economy with a focus on the manufacturing sector. This framework is then supported by an analysis of trends in R&D-the single single most important category of investment for an industrialized nation.


Analyses of technology's long-term economic impacts indicate a strong cyclical pattern in which waves of innovation occur. These technology waves have appeared a number of a number of several times in the past century. Typically, as the economic boom that follows a burst of innovation proceeds, complacency progressively sets in. The resulting technological obsolescence eventually causes economic crises until a new set of technology trajectories appears. The current IT transformation is a perfect example. Several decades of slow productivity advances with sluggish growth in output resulted in in?ation and little or no growth in real incomes. This segment of the long-term growth cycle appeared to appeared to seemed to come to an end come to an end end in the late 1990s with huge investments in IT and other technologies (particularly biotechnology). However, as with past technology waves, the global distribution of the economic rewards is uncertain. Given that all Given that all Because all industrialized nations have relatively small high-tech sectors (including the United States), each of these nations each of these nations each nation is vulnerable to economic decline during the reshuf?ing that occurs as the new technologies emerge. A major reason is the turbulence that accompanies accompanies goes along with the initial impacts of the technology. In particular, overestimates In particular, overestimates Overestimates of the technology's short-term bene?ts, the requirements for assimilation, and the new sources of continued innovation all combine to realign competitive positions and put a domestic economy's growth trajectory at risk. To understand how to sustain and broaden the initial gains in innovation and productivity, four policy questions need to be answered about the future future potential of what has been labeled the "New Economy."


1. Is the U.S. economy truly truly high-tech?


2. Is information technology the only important growth trajectory?


3. Are current R&D investment patterns adequate for sustained growth?


4. What are the sources of R&D investment and how can they be expanded and sustained?


The trends leading to these questions imply broad and sweeping economic change. However, the effects of IT are primarily in the areas of market transaction ef?ciencies and corporate processes and operations. The major impacts are the creation of some new industries, restructuring of many established industries, and shifts in types of jobs and work location. Such structural impacts are obviously critically important. These same categories of impacts resulted from the Industrial Revolution in the late 1800s and early 1900s, when major investments in new infrastructure integrated largely isolated regional markets into national ones. New communications technologies greatly increased the ?ow and timing of information and standardization facilitated the facilitated the helped with the emergence of factories. For the ?rst time, geographically dispersed factories produced componentscomponentsparts, which were integrated into more complex products at yet another location. This restructuring of the economic system caused major changes in job content and location. The period was characterized by a distinct lack of pricing power in the key technology-driven markets, which spawned a survival-of-the-?ttest corporate environment. The same process is underway today, as technological competence is spreading globally. The signi?cant difference is that the price wars of today's global markets are the result of are the result of result from new national economies whose acquisition and development of technology is eroding market shares of established industrial economies, including the United States. The persistent trade de?cit proves this point. Like the Industrial Revolution, the advent of the advent of new product technologies in today's economy is proceeding is proceeding is moving forward largely on a separate track from the evolution of the underlying infrastructure. Independent advances in science give rise to new technologies but do so decades later. The message for policy makers today is that the current economic transformation, like the one a century earlier, cannot be solely infrastructure-based.

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